Reasons you can’t count out the Jays in the ALCS

After four games the Blue Jays find themselves in a 3-1 hole heading into Game Five of the American League Championship Series. Aaron Sanchez just pitched a dandy in Game Four at Rogers Centre, allowing two hits over six strong innings, along with five strikeouts to help keep Toronto’s season alive.

Through the first three games of the series the Jays only mustered a measly three runs. While Cleveland’s pitching has been stellar, the umpire’s certainly haven’t been doing the Jays hitters any favours. Is it the umps’ faults though? A recent ESPN blog post noted that through the first two games of the series, Indians’ pitchers got the benefit of questionable strike calls far more often than the Jays pitchers, in part because of the framing ability of Indians’ catcher Roberto Perez. That same trend continued into Game Three when the series shifted to Rogers Centre.

Perez’s framing didn’t have as much of an impact in Game Four though, with the Jays’ bats finally coming alive in their 5-1 win. Perez’s pitch framing won’t even be a topic of discussion if the Jays’ offense can do its part in backing up the team’s strong pitching.

Of the 34 major league teams to go down 3-0 in a best of seven playoff series, only the 2004 Boston Red Sox came back to win. The Jays’ have a chance at doing just that, for a few reasons:

  1. If the Jays can get leads early on and avoid facing Andrew Miller when trailing, their chances of success would definitely increase. Miller has thoroughly dominated Toronto hitters this series, striking out 10 of 12 batters he’s faced.
  2. Through four games, the Jays’ have only a minus-one run differential in the series. This shows that even though Toronto’s offense slumped miserably through the first three games, the games were all still close. Cleveland could be in a load of trouble if Toronto’s offense gets on a tear when it matters most.
  3. With Cleveland ace Corey Kluber having just pitched on three-day rest and Trevor Bauer’s health in question, the Indians rotation has some major question marks. Rookie Ryan Merritt, who’s scheduled to start Game Five, lacks both postseason and starting experience. Merritt has had some success coming out of the bullpen, but he’ll likely be on a tight leash in a high leverage game, especially with only one start in his young career.
  4. If Merritt can’t last long, Cleveland’s bullpen will once again have to carry a heavy burden, which could be a tough task to handle for an Indians bullpen that pitched over eight innings in Game Three. Aside from Miller, the Jays’ have started to show signs they can hit Indians’ relievers.
  5. Per Zachary Rymer of Bleacher Report, the Jays won four straight games seven times during the regular season. Who’s to say they can’t do it again?

Get ahead early, avoid Andrew Miller, get the bats going. Easy enough, right? A historic comeback is definitely on the table.


What the Blue Jays playoff rotation should look like come October

Barring any major injuries to Toronto’s starters and continued offensive production, the four-man playoff rotation the Blue Jays could potentially be trotting out for the playoffs is one of the stronger rotations in all of baseball.

Cy Young candidate and 17-game winner J.A. Happ (3.19 ERA) is positioned to start Game 1 of the ALDS, assuming the Blue Jays close out the season with a second straight pennant crown. Happ epitomizes consistency every time he trots out to the mound this season, putting the Blue Jays in a favourable position to win. The run support he receives in his starts helps, but the work Happ exhibits on the mound doesn’t go unnoticed. Aside from his last two near-quality starts (5IP, 6H, 4ER, 1BB, 6K vs the Los Angeles Angels / 7.1IP, 7H, 4ER, 1BB, 9K vs the New York Yankees) and one start against the Oakland A’s back in mid-July, Happ has held opposing lineups to 1 earned run or fewer for nearly a six week stretch.

The debate is in full throttle as to whether the Jays will elect to start youngster Aaron Sanchez or Happ for Game 1 of the ALDS. Personally, I think Happ’s consistency is the more favourable choice to get the Blue Jays momentum going to start the playoffs. Sanchez (12-2, 2.99 ERA) has been incredibly consistent in his own right, but the career-high innings total (156.1 by the end of August) could factor into management’s decision-making come October. Slotting Sanchez in as the second man in the playoff rotation appears to be the safer choice of the two.

Given Marcus Stroman’s improved play over the past two months and ability to carry the Blue Jays deep into close games (excluding two or three starts), I would slot the other youngter of the rotation in for Game 3 of the ALDS. Stroman’s ERA (4.58) has dropped considerably over the past couple months, vaulting him back into his accustomed role as a reliable Blue Jays starter. His mastery of his pitches as well as his ability to keep the ball down and hit the corners of the strike zone are the main factors that are attributed to his revitalization. Something about Stroman’s September performance last season further encourages me to slot him in for Game 3; Marcus appears to up his game when it really counts most is not phased by the pressure.

To close out the playoff rotation, I’d slot in Marco Estrada. Aside from his last two starts, Estrada since coming off the disabled list has picked up where he left off and owns an impressive 3.47 ERA. I know you may be thinking based on his ERA alone that Estrada should be the Blue Jays #3 starter in the rotation, but there is one main reason I would argue the contrary. Assuming that the Blue Jays are in a tight series, positioning Estrada to pitch a potential close out game would be in their best interest. If history is any indicator, when the Blue Jays had their backs against the wall heading into Game 5 of the 2015 ALCS against the Kansas City Royals at Rogers Centre, Estrada came out and pitched one of the best starts of his career to send the series back to KC, much to the appreciation of Blue Jays fans ( Estrada has proven to be a big game pitcher, and that’s what you need most if you hope to go deep into October.

As September approaches and the stretch run continues to heat up with the AL East pennant still up for grabs, let’s hope the Blue Jays continue their stellar play and lock up a second straight division title so this playoff rotation can become a reality. If this recent Minnesota series is any indication, the Blue Jays offense along with their sluggers are willing to contribute their fair share towards the cause.

What the Blue Jays should do with Aaron Sanchez

Aaron Sanchez has arrived on the scene this season, exceeding expectations and reaching his star potential far quicker than the Blue Jays organization initially expected. In only his third big league season, Sanchez has rounded into the true ace of the team’s big league staff, posting an 11-1 record accompanied with a 2.71 ERA.

With the Jays acquiring pitchers Scott Feldman, Mike Bolsinger, and Francisco Liriano towards the trade deadline’s closing hours, the hot debate topic on the Toronto sports scene is what to do with Aaron Sanchez. With Sanchez having already surpassed his career-high in innings pitched this season, the move to acquire a pitcher with the track record of Liriano indicates the Jays at one point will send Sanchez to the bullpen and hope Liriano can fill the void Sanchez leaves in the starting rotation. Sanchez thrived in the bullpen last season in an 8th-inning setup role, but many believe that limiting Sanchez to one to two innings of work could get the pitcher out of the current groove he’s been in so far this season.

I believe that the Jays would be smarter to skip some of Sanchez’s starts during the stretch run of the season. Although he would reach closer to 200 innings pitched if he pitches into the playoffs even after skipping some starts, Sanchez is far more effective in a starters role, where he can maximize his pitching prowess over a longer duration, which puts the Jays in a better position to let the offense takeover. Sanchez’s pitches mix in 97 mph speed with late movement, making him practically unhittable. Why wouldn’t the Jays want to maximize that? Further, why try and mess with what Sanchez has going? He’s clearly in a groove and moving Sanchez to the bullpen could impact the momentum he is riding.

There’s no definitive proof that limiting a pitcher’s inning total protects their long-term durability. Tommy John injuries creep up on pitcher’s arms rather unpredictably, and every pitcher’s body is different in how susceptible they are to sustaining serious injuries. Skipping starts rather than strictly making Sanchez a bullpen arm seems to be a logical solution for the Jays in attempting to protect their star pitcher’s prized arm.

Obviously you don’t want Sanchez making a jump of 100 innings over his career high this season, which is why it’d be smart to skip three or four of his starts down the stretch to keep him fresh for the playoffs. With Sanchez having pitched non-stressful innings so far this season, his durability shouldn’t be over analyzed at this point. He’s in better shape than he’s ever been in his major league career, and the shoulder issues he briefly experienced last season seem to be a thing of the past. It’s really a question of how well the Jays are able to balance winning it all this year with protecting Sanchez over the long-haul. Finding that point of equilibrium will be crucial for team management.

Evaluating the Blue Jays starting rotation

As the Blue Jays prepare for game 101 of the 162-game baseball season grind in San Diego, the team’s rotation has certainly satisfied, maybe even surpassed fan expectations to this point in the season.

After losing David Price in free agency to the Boston Red Sox, many fans felt that the gap left in the rotation from his departure could not be filled. The Jays ability to fill the rotation’s void became dependent upon youngsters Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman taking the next step in their respective developments, while hoping that veteran pitcher Marco Estrada could repeat the success he experienced during the 2015 campaign. The free agent signings of J.A. Happ; a former Jay who struggled mightily in his previous tenure with the club; as well as Jesse Chavez were overlooked, with all the attention focused on the trade that brought former Washington National reliever Drew Storen to Toronto to compete for the team’s closing role

At this point in the season, the rotation has significantly exceeded expectations. Aaron Sanchez after last night’s start has an astounding 11-1 record, to go along with a 2.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Sanchez has won his last 10 starts, becoming the first Jays pitcher since Roy Halladay to do so. Sitting firmly in the American League Cy Young conversation, Sanchez has finally reached his sky-high potential in his 3rd big league season to help the Blue Jays rotation sore to new heights. Talks of maintaining his innings limit have halted given his stellar play; there are no indicators suggesting his play will begin to diminish as the season enters the final stretch.

Sanchez’s good friend Marcus Stroman has not experienced quite the same success this season after his miraculous September 2015 and playoff run, struggling with his command earlier on in the season and currently owning a 4.90 ERA, the highest among starters on the team. The team’s supposed ace still owns a respectable 8-4 record and has really bounced back in his last few starts, pitching deeper into ball games and commanding the strike zone the way fans know he can. Even with Stroman’s early/mid season struggles, the team is still positioned right in the thick of things atop the AL East.

Aside from the Jays’ young hurlers, the team’s position in the standings is largely attributed to the pitching of Marco Estrada and J.A. Haap.

Estrada has excelled in his second full season with the Blue Jays, despite a stint on the disabled list with back pain, earning a 2.94 ERA and keeping his home runs allowed down as he did last season. The biggest surprise in the Blue Jays rotation has to be J.A. Happ. Whatever adjustments Haap made in Pittsburgh with pitching guru Ray Searage, they are paying dividends for him in the 2016 season. Haap has collected a team-high 13 wins on the season, with only 3 losses on his record; his impressive hurling has translated into an impressive 3.27 ERA and is coming off a start in which he allowed only one hit over six innings. It’s safe to say Haap has helped filled Price’s void and has become arguably the Jays most reliable starter.

The team’s fifth starter, R.A. Dickey, has had a typical season for his standards since joining the Blue Jays. Normally one to pick it up towards the latter half of the season, Dickey has yet to enter a groove with his knuckleball, as he allowed 6 earned runs over just three innings. I love Dickey as a locker room presence and high character guy, it just makes my skin boil when I recall that former GM Alex Anthopoulous traded away highly-touted prospect and current ace of the New York Mets, Noah Syndergaard, as well as the Mets current catcher, Travis D’Arnaud for a 38 year old knuckleballer. That certainly should go down as AA’s most short-sighted trade, but you can’t fully blame him given that Dickey was coming off an NL Cy Young season in 2012 and the Jays were in “win-now” mode.

With just over sixty games remaining in the 2016 regular season, look for the Jays rotation to continue its success and help lead the team into the postseason. As long as the Jays offense remains formidable and produces consistently, the team should be posed for its second consecutive playoff run.